The Blog
The numbers behind the news. Trade rumors, contract calls, and team breakdowns, all running on the same data as The Whiteboard.

Five home picks: the Whiteboard backs Vegas and Carolina, and three games sit near even

Five games Friday night. The Whiteboard takes the home team in all five: Vegas at 69.4 percent and Carolina at 62.0 percent are the clear reads, with Winnipeg, Detroit, and Dallas near even.

Night Three: Five of Eight for the Model, and Three Goalies Rewrote the Picks

Eight games Thursday night. The picks went five for eight, and three of the misses came down to goaltending: Shesterkin, Daccord, and Askarov all beat the Whiteboard's read.

Tonight's Whiteboard Picks: Utah, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton — Plus a Rematch in Vancouver

Eight games tonight. The Whiteboard's surest pick is Utah over Chicago at 79.3 percent, Tampa Bay has the night's highest team score, and the goalies flip Buffalo-Columbus.

Night Two: Pittsburgh Crushed the Model's Surest Pick — and the Whiteboard Says the Favorites Won Games They Did Not Control

Three games on night two, Wednesday night. Pittsburgh crushed the model's 80.4-percent pick 7-0, and the Whiteboard says Toronto and Colorado won games they did not control.

Tonight's Whiteboard Picks: Philadelphia, Toronto, and Colorado — and the Goalie Keeping One of Them Close

Three games tonight. The Whiteboard, running tonight's expected lineups with goaltending in the number, likes Philadelphia, Toronto, and Colorado — and says Ilya Sorokin is the only reason the Toronto game is close.

Opening Night: The Goalies Stole Three of Five — and the Whiteboard Says the Oilers Lost a Game They Controlled

Five games opened the 2026-27 season Tuesday night. The Whiteboard's chance ledger says three were decided in the crease, Edmonton lost a game it controlled at every strength, and the best skater on the ice finished without a point.

The Box Score Buried Gavin McKenna's Debut. The Chances Didn't.

Zero points and a minus-2 in his first NHL game. The Whiteboard's tracking of Tuesday's Toronto loss says the 18-year-old's process was fine. The volume was the problem, and that is the thing to watch.

Opening Night 2026: Our Model's Read: Carolina, Montreal, Edmonton, and Vegas, Plus One Coin Flip

Five games open the 2026-27 season tonight. The Whiteboard, running tonight's expected lineups with goaltending in the number, likes Carolina, Montreal, Edmonton, and Vegas, and calls Rangers-Bruins a coin flip.

The Marchenko Trade: Toronto Paid Full Price — and the Whiteboard Says It Was Worth It

Toronto gave up Matthew Knies, Emil Andrae, a second-round pick, and $4.75 million more in annual cap space for six years to land Kirill Marchenko. The Whiteboard grades Marchenko 66.2 to Knies' 46.6 — and the math says the Leafs were right to pay it.

Buffalo's crease is empty: Luukkonen tweaks a lower body issue, Lyon already out, and Ellis is all that is left

Buffalo lost both halves of its presumed goalie tandem in preseason within 48 hours, leaving Colten Ellis as the only healthy rostered goalie five days before the opener at Columbus.

Camp Diary — Day 10

Nikishin's holdout escalates, Larkin misses the whole preseason, and Kyrou wins it in overtime — the last weekend of camp across all 32 teams.

Camp Diary: Day 5

Day five of 2026 training camp, Monday, September 21. Alex Ovechkin is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, Brady Tkachuk marked his Panthers debut with a Gordie Howe hat trick, and Aleksander Barkov played his first game in fifteen months. Here is what happened at every rink.

Training Camp 2026: A Realistic Lineup for All 32 Teams, and the Questions Camp Has to Answer

Camps are open. I ran all 32 rosters through the Whiteboard’s lineup model — drive, engine, and chemistry scores for every line and pair — then adjusted for injuries and real deployment. Every team’s realistic lineup, what the numbers say, and the questions camp has to answer.

Camp Diary: Day 1

Thirty-two camps opened on Thursday, September 17. Hellebuyck suspended for failing to report, Makar on a lighter program, Larkin out hurt — what happened at every rink on day one.

What The Whiteboard Says About Kirill Marchenko

Kirill Marchenko is in trade rumors, so I pulled his page up on The Whiteboard to see what my own data says he is.

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