Opening Night: The Goalies Stole Three of Five — and the Whiteboard Says the Oilers Lost a Game They Controlled
By Ashkon Baharlou
The 2026-27 season opened with five games Tuesday night, and the Whiteboard's read of them is simple: three were decided in the crease, one was decided by finishing, and one went exactly the way the chances said.
Florida 1, Carolina 0 (OT): Gustav Forsling 4:55 into overtime. Expected goals dead even, 2.30 to 2.33. Montreal 3, Toronto 2: William Nylander scored twice in the loss. Expected goals said Toronto, 3.17 to 2.22. Boston 3, NY Rangers 0: three goals in 75 seconds of the third period. Expected goals said Boston, 3.04 to 2.51. Vancouver 6, Edmonton 5 (OT): Paul Cotter 1:59 into overtime. Expected goals said Edmonton by a mile, 3.76 to 2.02. Vegas 5, Chicago 2: Jack Eichel with a goal and two assists. Expected goals said Vegas, 3.77 to 2.48.
A quick note on the numbers, since they carry this article. Expected goals (xG) is the value of every chance. Individual expected goals (ixG) is a player's own number from the shots he took. Goals saved above expected (GSAx) is what a goalie stopped beyond the chances he faced. And on-ice share is a player's slice of 5-on-5 expected goals while he was out there. All of it is the Whiteboard's tracking of the five games, built on the NHL's play-by-play.
Florida 1, Carolina 0 (OT)
This was Florida's game at even strength and Carolina's on the power play. The Panthers carried 5-on-5 expected goals 1.34 to 0.49. The Hurricanes answered with 1.16 expected goals on the power play to Florida's 0.52, and that is most of how a game Florida controlled got to overtime at all. Six high-danger chances apiece.
The difference was Jacob Markstrom. He faced 2.33 expected goals and stopped everything, plus-2.33 goals saved above expected, and never allowed a high-danger goal. Brandon Bussi nearly matched him, 19 saves on 20 shots and plus-1.30 goals saved above expected, and lost.
Florida's best 5-on-5 work came from the bottom of the lineup. Dmitry Kulikov had no points but was on the ice for 0.37 expected goals for and 0.03 against, a 93 percent on-ice share. Radko Gudas was at a 91 percent on-ice share, also without a point. Sam Reinhart posted an 84 percent on-ice share with 82 percent of the shot attempts and no points. The one Florida pair that struggled was Gustav Forsling's, a 25 percent on-ice share before he scored the winner in overtime, which sits outside the 5-on-5 numbers.
Carolina's third line had a night to forget. Nikolaj Ehlers, Jordan Staal, and Jordan Martinook were on the ice for zero 5-on-5 expected goals for between them, and none of them had a point. Ehlers played 10.3 minutes with 11 percent of the shot attempts and no shots on goal. Logan Stankoven played 12 minutes without a shot or a point, and his line was outchanced 0.85 to 0.19 in expected goals. Jackson Blake carried what offense Carolina had, 0.63 individual expected goals with 0.53 of it on the power play, and Sebastian Aho put four shots on net for 0.39 individual expected goals, and neither had a point. Jaccob Slavin, an Elite driver in the model, was on the ice for a 30 percent on-ice share and had no points.
Florida controlled five-on-five, Carolina's power play kept it level, and Markstrom decided it.
Montreal 3, Toronto 2
Toronto was the better team by the chances and lost the game. The Maple Leafs carried expected goals 3.17 to 2.22 overall and 2.27 to 1.54 at 5-on-5, with six high-danger chances to Montreal's two. Montreal won it on finishing and goaltending. Jakub Dobes faced 3.17 expected goals and allowed two, plus-1.17 goals saved above expected. Sergei Bobrovsky faced 2.22 expected goals and allowed three, minus-0.78 goals saved above expected.
Kirill Marchenko's Toronto debut was the best 5-on-5 performance on either side: 0.58 individual expected goals, four shots, two high-danger chances, an assist, and a 74 percent on-ice share in 15 minutes. Auston Matthews was on the ice for a 71 percent on-ice share but took only two shots for 0.13 individual expected goals and had no points. Jack Roslovic, the third man on that line, matched Marchenko at a 74 percent on-ice share, without a point. John Tavares generated the most individual expected goals of anyone in the game, 0.89 on four shots with 0.67 of it on the power play, and had an assist but did not score. William Nylander scored twice on 0.49 individual expected goals, and his line was outchanced at 5-on-5 with a 42 percent on-ice share. That is finishing rather than driving play, and the same goes for the whole Toronto attack: 0.72 expected goals on the power play, no goals.
Toronto's fourth line was the one unit that got caved. Teddy Blueger was on the ice for 0.02 expected goals for and 0.33 against in 8.3 minutes, a 6 percent on-ice share, and Brandon Duhaime was at a 13 percent on-ice share; neither had a point. Nick Paul fared better at a 59 percent on-ice share in 10.4 minutes, also without a point.
Montreal's scoring came from its depth. Josh Anderson had a goal and an assist, 0.34 individual expected goals on three shots, and a 62 percent on-ice share, the best of Montreal's forwards with real minutes. Zachary Bolduc scored with 0.28 individual expected goals and a 55 percent on-ice share, and the Jake Evans line was on the right side of the puck at a 57 percent on-ice share, though Evans himself had no points. The top line got buried without a point between them: Nick Suzuki was on the ice for 0.22 expected goals for and 1.07 against, a 17 percent on-ice share, with Cole Caufield at a 21 percent on-ice share and Chris Kreider at 18. Lane Hutson played the most 5-on-5 minutes on the team, 19.9, at a 36 percent on-ice share, without a point.
Toronto controlled play and lost. Montreal's top line was outplayed, its bottom two lines scored, and Dobes covered the rest.
Boston 3, NY Rangers 0
Boston had the edge in a close one, 3.04 to 2.51 in expected goals and 2.79 to 2.42 at 5-on-5, with seven high-danger chances to five. Neither power play did anything: 0.05 expected goals for Boston, 0.06 for New York. Then Fraser Minten scored at 16:14 of the third, JJ Peterka at 17:06, and Mark Kastelic into the empty net at 17:29, and a close game was a shutout.
Jeremy Swayman faced 2.51 expected goals and stopped everything, plus-2.51 goals saved above expected, and that is the story of the game. Igor Shesterkin was fine at the other end, allowing two goals on 22 shots, plus-0.84 goals saved above expected on 2.84 expected goals faced with the empty-net goal excluded from his line.
The Rangers had one line that worked. J.T. Miller, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Pavel Dorofeyev each posted an on-ice share above 60 percent without a point between them, and Dorofeyev led the team with 0.63 individual expected goals on five shots and two high-danger chances. Vladislav Gavrikov was at a 68 percent on-ice share behind them, also without a point. The top line did not work: Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafrenière were each on the ice for about 16.5 minutes at 5-on-5 with on-ice shares of 30 and 31 percent, and neither had a point. Lafrenière took no shots on goal and produced nothing individually in that time, and Gabe Perreault, his linemate, went without a shot or a point too. The Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi pair was on for 1.31 and 1.17 expected goals against, and neither had a point.
Boston's second line drove the game. Casey Mittelstadt was on the ice for a 67 percent on-ice share, Morgan Geekie a 65 percent on-ice share, and Pavel Zacha 62 percent with 0.50 individual expected goals on three shots, and none of the three had a point. Hampus Lindholm led the defense at a 68 percent on-ice share and picked up an assist. Minten scored the opener and set up the empty-netter, 0.30 individual expected goals with 68 percent of the shot attempts, though his line was outchanced, a 38 percent on-ice share. Peterka scored on 0.28 individual expected goals and was on the ice for a 51 percent on-ice share in 14.9 minutes. Will Borgen, Lindholm's partner, posted a 61 percent on-ice share without a point. James Hagens's debut was quiet: no points, a 27 percent on-ice share, and 0.09 individual expected goals in 12.7 minutes.
An even game that Swayman made a shutout. New York's top line had nothing, and Boston's second line was the best unit on the ice.
Vancouver 6, Edmonton 5 (OT)
This is the night's clearest case of the scoreboard and the chances disagreeing. Edmonton controlled it at every strength: 3.76 to 2.02 in expected goals, 2.69 to 1.31 at 5-on-5, ten high-danger chances to five, 37 shots to 23, and 0.86 expected goals on the power play to Vancouver's 0.11. Vancouver scored six times on 2.02 expected goals.
The difference was in the crease. Tristan Jarry faced 2.02 expected goals and allowed six, minus-3.98 goals saved above expected, the worst goaltending line of the night by a wide margin. Three of those goals came on 0.92 expected goals of high-danger chances. Kevin Lankinen made 32 saves and allowed five at the other end but still finished below expected, minus-1.24 goals saved above expected on 3.76 expected goals faced.
Evan Bouchard's three goals and two assists came on 0.35 individual expected goals from six shots. His on-ice share was 56 percent with 71 percent of the shot attempts, a good night that the finishing turned into a huge one. The real driving came from Edmonton's forwards. Vasily Podkolzin led everyone with 0.97 individual expected goals on six shots, two of them high-danger, scored twice, and was on the ice for an 85 percent on-ice share. That is the best skater line of the night. Leon Draisaitl had an assist, 0.50 individual expected goals, and an 80 percent on-ice share, and Kasperi Kapanen an 84 percent on-ice share with 0.38 individual expected goals and no points. Connor McDavid had two assists and a 66 percent on-ice share without putting a shot on goal. The one weak spot was the fourth line, with Isaac Howard, Owen Michaels, and Trent Frederic in for the injured Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, at 24 percent on-ice shares and no points.
Vancouver's finishing came from unlikely places. Paul Cotter scored twice, including the winner in overtime, on 0.10 individual expected goals. Max Sasson had a goal and an assist on 0.24 individual expected goals, and Jonathan Lekkerimäki scored on 0.05 individual expected goals while on the ice for a 20 percent on-ice share. The Vancouver defense bled chances: Zeev Buium was on for 1.25 expected goals against in 20.6 minutes, a 29 percent on-ice share, Tom Willander was at a 21 percent on-ice share with 25 percent of the shot attempts, neither with a point, and Jamie Oleksiak, who assisted on Lekkerimäki's goal, was on for 1.08 expected goals against in 18.4 minutes, a 26 percent on-ice share. Elias Pettersson the center scored on the power play but was on the ice for a 22 percent on-ice share at 5-on-5. His namesake on defense, the other Elias Pettersson, was Vancouver's most respectable skater by share at a 55 percent on-ice share, without a point.
Edmonton outplayed Vancouver at 5-on-5, on the power play, and on the penalty kill, and lost because Jarry allowed six on two expected goals.
Vegas 5, Chicago 2
The one game where the chances and the scoreboard told the same story. Vegas controlled it, 3.77 to 2.48 in expected goals and 2.65 to 2.10 at 5-on-5, with ten high-danger chances to three and 0.96 expected goals on the power play to Chicago's 0.28. Carter Hart faced 2.48 expected goals and allowed two, plus-0.48 goals saved above expected, with no high-danger goals against. Spencer Knight made 32 saves on 36 shots but faced 3.70 expected goals and finished at minus-0.30 goals saved above expected.
The scoring and the play-driving came from different Vegas players. Jack Eichel had a goal and two assists on 0.38 individual expected goals, but his line was outchanced at 5-on-5: Eichel and Mark Stone were both on the ice for a 38 percent on-ice share, and Stone's only point and only shot was his empty-net goal, which carries no individual expected goals. Tomas Hertl was the best player on the ice without a point: 0.85 individual expected goals on four shots, five high-danger chances, and a 73 percent on-ice share. Victor Olofsson scored with a 74 percent on-ice share, Brett Howden was at a 78 percent on-ice share without a point, and Trevor Connelly scored in his 9.6 minutes with 0.36 individual expected goals and a 77 percent on-ice share. Noah Hanifin scored and posted a 67 percent on-ice share alongside Jeremy Lauzon, also at 67 and without a point, and the McNabb and Theodore pair, with two assists apiece, was at 64 and 63 percent on-ice shares. The Wotherspoon and Andersson pair was the weak one at 40 and 37 percent on-ice shares, and neither had a point.
Chicago's top pair held up, with Bowen Byram at a 54 percent on-ice share in 21.4 minutes without a point, but the second pair of Wyatt Kaiser, who had an assist, and Artyom Levshunov was on for 1.25 and 1.19 expected goals against at 41 percent on-ice shares each. Frank Nazar was Chicago's best forward with 0.46 individual expected goals, two high-danger chances, and a 63 percent on-ice share, but no points. Tyler Bertuzzi was at a 71 percent on-ice share but did not put a shot on goal or register a point. Patrick Kane scored on 0.37 individual expected goals at an even 50 percent on-ice share. Roman Kantserov's debut on the top line produced a 22 percent on-ice share and 0.06 individual expected goals in 14.4 minutes, without a point.
Vegas earned it on chances and on the power play. Eichel's line got the points; Hertl's line did the work.
The standouts
Tristan Jarry's night is the single biggest swing in any of the five games: six goals allowed on 2.02 expected goals faced, minus-3.98 goals saved above expected. At the other end, Markstrom and Swayman put up shutouts on 2.33 and 2.51 expected goals faced, and both of their teams' wins run through the crease. Vasily Podkolzin's two goals came on 0.97 individual expected goals from six shots with an 85 percent on-ice share, the best skater line of the night, and Tomas Hertl's 0.85 individual expected goals without a point is the best nobody will remember, on a night his center put up three points on 0.38 individual expected goals. And two lines got buried at 5-on-5: Carolina's third, on the ice for zero expected goals for, and Montreal's first, with on-ice shares of 17, 21, and 18 percent.
What the crowd sees vs. what the model sees
The crowd sees goalies stealing games, and the crowd is right. Three of the five were decided in the crease. The Whiteboard's counter-read is narrower than you would think. Four of the five games had a clear expected-goals favorite and the fifth was a coin flip, and the scoreboard agreed with the favorite twice. The chances said Toronto, Boston, Edmonton, and Vegas. The scoreboard said Montreal, Boston, Vancouver, and Vegas.
The fair concession, and it matters: one night of hockey is noise. Expected goals are a starting point, not a conclusion, and ten games will tell us more than one did. Florida carried 5-on-5 play in the coin flip and needed overtime and a shutout to win it. Edmonton did everything right and got goalied. That is the game.
The verdict
The goalies won opening night. Markstrom, Swayman, and Dobes turned three games their teams had no business winning by the chances, and Jarry turned the night's most lopsided chance ledger into a loss. The skaters' stories are real too: Podkolzin announced himself, Hertl did the work without the points, Marchenko's debut was the best 5-on-5 line in a game his new team lost, and two top-six lines got caved.
The real risk, named plainly: it is one night. None of these numbers mean anything yet, and the teams that got goalied will tell you the chances do not hang banners. They do not. They tell you what happened while the scoreboard tells you who won, and on opening night those were different stories.
Want to check the work? Open the Whiteboard, the free line tool I built, and pull up any of these games yourself. Build tonight's lineups while you are there and watch the ratings move.
All expected-goals numbers from the Whiteboard's tracking of the five games, built on NHL play-by-play. Scores, scorers, and goalie lines via the NHL's official data.
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