By Ashkon Baharlou

Eight games on the second night of the season, including a rematch of opening night's 6-5 overtime thriller in Vancouver, and the injury news is already shaping lineups: Zach Hyman is out in Edmonton, Ivan Provorov is out in Columbus, and the Rangers are down a goaltender with Joonas Korpisalo on injured reserve. Joseph Woll gets the start for Philadelphia in Newark. Here is the model's pick for all eight games and the numbers behind each one.

One note before the picks. Every number below comes from the Whiteboard model, run over tonight's expected lineups as built this afternoon. A team score blends the skater units with goaltending, and the win probability accounts for home ice. This is the model's read and nothing more. Every pick is logged, and the results story will grade them against the finals.

7:00 ET, ESPN+/Hulu: Philadelphia at New Jersey

Last night: Philadelphia lost 7-0 in Pittsburgh — the model's surest pick of the night at 80.4 percent, blown up. The Whiteboard's read: Pittsburgh controlled play at every strength, 4.65 to 2.14 in expected goals, Dan Vladar allowed seven on 4.65 expected, and Philadelphia had nothing at 5-on-5. New Jersey has not played yet.

The Whiteboard's pick: New Jersey, 63.2% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 65.4 to 61.3: skaters 66.8 to 64.3, goaltending 59.8 to 49.3. Jake Allen grades at 58.7 over 37 games, 0.47 goals per 60 saved above expected. Woll grades at 49.0 over 39 games, 0.20 per 60 above expected.

The skater edge comes from up front. New Jersey's forwards rate 74.0 to Philadelphia's 64.2, led by four Elite drivers: Jack Hughes at the 97th percentile, Nico Hischier at the 96th, Jesper Bratt at the 89th, and Brett Pesce at the 88th. The Anthony Mantha, Jack Hughes, and Jesper Bratt line carries 87 chemistry. Philadelphia is better on defense, 66.0 to 55.8: Travis Sanheim is the only 100th-percentile skater in the game, and his pair with Rasmus Ristolainen carries 70 chemistry. Owen Tippett, at the 94th percentile, is Philadelphia's other Elite driver.

Special teams favor New Jersey: its power play rates 74.4 to Philadelphia's 60.6, with a first unit of Luke Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Luke Evangelista at 52 chemistry against Philadelphia's 47. The penalty kills are even, 61.0 to 60.5. In its one game so far, Philadelphia's power play went 0 for 3 on 0.99 expected goals in about 7.0 minutes, and its penalty kill allowed 2 goals on 4 times shorthanded.

The honest risk: the goalie choice. Scored as built, with Woll; with Vladar in net instead, Philadelphia's score rises to 63.4 and New Jersey's chance falls to 59.2%. On skaters alone, New Jersey is at 60.1%.

7:00 ET, MSG: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

Opening night: the Rangers lost 3-0 to Boston, shut out by Jeremy Swayman (plus-2.51 goals saved above expected) in a game the chances had close, 3.04 to 2.51. New York's top line did nothing; the J.T. Miller line was the only unit that worked. Tampa Bay has not played yet.

The Whiteboard's pick: Tampa Bay, 69.1% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 73.2 to 60.9. Tampa Bay's 73.2 is the highest team score of the night.

The goalies cancel out: Andrei Vasilevskiy grades at 78.3 over 58 games and Igor Shesterkin at 79.3 over 51, and with the rush-fit adjustment the two teams' goaltending is 78.6 and 79.1. The gap is all skaters, 71.9 to 56.4. Tampa Bay's forwards rate 69.8 to New York's 50.3, and its defense 72.7 to 64.3. Brandon Hagel is at the 100th percentile, with Anthony Cirelli at the 98th, Nikita Kucherov at the 97th, J.J. Moser at the 90th, and Ryan McDonagh at the 89th, five Elite drivers in all. The Hagel, Cirelli, and Jake Guentzel line carries 93 chemistry, and the Ilya Mikheyev, Brayden Point, and Kucherov line 80. New York's best unit is on defense: Vladislav Gavrikov and Adam Fox at 76 chemistry, with Fox, at the 93rd percentile, and Pavel Dorofeyev, at the 90th, its Elite drivers.

Special teams: Tampa Bay has the best power play and the best penalty kill of the night by the model's ratings, 80.4 and 70.2, against New York's 66.8 and 54.5. Its first unit of John Carlson, Hagel, Point, Kucherov, and Guentzel carries 80 chemistry, the highest of any power-play unit tonight. New York's special teams barely played in its opener: about 3.0 power-play minutes for 0.06 expected goals and about 2.6 penalty-kill minutes against 0.05.

The honest risk: with the goalies even, the pick rests entirely on the skater ratings, which are built on last season. On skaters alone, Tampa Bay is at 74.4%.

7:00 ET, MSG-B: Buffalo at Columbus

The Whiteboard's pick: Columbus, 59.6% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 62.4 to 60.2 — and this is the night's one pick the goalies flip. Buffalo's skaters rate higher, 59.6 to 56.1, and on skaters alone Buffalo would be the pick, with Columbus at 47.9%.

The flip is Jet Greaves. He grades at 93.5, the best of the night's sixteen starters, from 55 games at 0.66 goals per 60 saved above expected. His rush save percentage was a perfect 1.000 on about 26 rush chances, and the rush-fit adjustment takes 5.7 points off his team goaltending for it, the largest adjustment on the slate — leaving Columbus at 87.8 to Buffalo's 62.7. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen grades at 61.1 over 35 games.

Buffalo's top line of Josh Norris, Tage Thompson, and Josh Doan carries 93 chemistry, tied for the best line of the night, and Doan and Rasmus Dahlin are Elite drivers at the 96th percentile. Its third pair, Matt Grzelcyk and Zach Metsa, is at 23. Columbus's Elite drivers are Zach Werenski at the 97th percentile and Valeri Nichushkin at the 96th, but its top line of Matthew Knies, Adam Fantilli, and Kent Johnson carries only 48 chemistry. Provorov is out week-to-week with a lower-body injury, per October 1 reporting; Carson Soucy takes his place on the second pair with Emil Andrae and on the second penalty-kill unit.

Special teams favor Buffalo: its power play rates 74.3 to Columbus's 68.2, and its first unit, with Dahlin at the point, carries 69 chemistry to Columbus's 58. The penalty kills are close, 58.3 to 57.2. Neither team has played.

The honest risk: one goalie grade decides the pick. Remove goaltending and Buffalo is favored.

8:00 ET, SCRIPPS: Minnesota at Nashville

The Whiteboard's pick: Minnesota, 63.8% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 62.6 to 53.2: skaters 62.5 to 54.8, goaltending 62.7 to 46.6. Jesper Wallstedt grades at 61.8 over 35 games, 0.44 goals per 60 above expected; Juuse Saros grades at 46.8 over 59 games, 0.06 per 60. The biggest component gap is on defense, 59.1 to 44.0.

Minnesota has four Elite drivers: Matt Boldy and Quinn Hughes at the 91st percentile, Kirill Kaprizov at the 90th, and Blake Coleman at the 88th. Nashville's are Ross Colton at the 95th, Mavrik Bourque at the 92nd, and Alexander Kerfoot at the 88th, and its top line of Steven Stamkos, Ryan O'Reilly, and Kerfoot carries 73 chemistry to Minnesota's 68.

Special teams favor Minnesota: its power play rates 67.5 to 57.8 and its penalty kill 61.5 to 56.9. Its first unit puts Hughes at the point with Boldy, Maxim Shabanov, Kaprizov, and Joel Eriksson Ek, at 52 chemistry; Nashville's, with Roman Josi at the point, is also at 52. Neither team has played.

The honest risk: Minnesota's third pair, Daemon Hunt and Zach Bogosian, carries 22 chemistry, the weakest pair in the game. On skaters alone, Minnesota is at 60.6%.

9:00 ET, SNW: Seattle at Calgary

The Whiteboard's pick: Calgary, 61.0% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 49.8 to 46.9 — two of the night's lowest-rated lineups. The skaters are even: Calgary 46.3, Seattle 46.5. Neither dresses an Elite driver; Jared McCann, at the 75th percentile, is Seattle's lone Strong driver, and Mikael Backlund, at the 78th, and Zach Whitecloud, at the 66th, are Calgary's.

The pick rests on Dustin Wolf, who grades at 64.9 over 57 games, against Joey Daccord's 47.7 over 47 games, and on home ice. On skaters alone, Calgary is at 54.6%, nearly all of it home ice.

Special teams favor Seattle: its power play rates 50.7 to Calgary's 41.7, and Calgary's first unit of Zayne Parekh, Matvei Gridin, Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee, and Matt Coronato carries 37 chemistry, the lowest of any first power-play unit tonight. The penalty kills are close, 46.0 to 44.4 for Calgary. Neither team has played.

The honest risk: the pick is Wolf plus home ice. Seattle's forwards rate higher, 51.1 to 48.0, and its power play is better.

9:30 ET, ESPN+/Hulu: Chicago at Utah

Opening night: Chicago lost 5-2 in Vegas — the one game where the chances and the scoreboard told the same story (3.77 to 2.48 expected goals). Frank Nazar was Chicago's best forward by the numbers, 0.46 individual expected goals and a 63 percent on-ice share, with no points to show for it; Patrick Kane scored. Utah has not played yet.

The Whiteboard's pick: Utah, 79.3% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 67.4 to 53.6. This is the most confident pick of the night, built on the widest skater gap on the slate, 67.2 to 45.9, and a wider forward gap still, 73.8 to 43.3. Utah has three Elite drivers, Clayton Keller at the 96th percentile, Nick Schmaltz at the 94th, and Barrett Hayton at the 89th, and eight Strong drivers. Its top three lines carry 77, 76, and 69 chemistry: Keller, Schmaltz, and Vincent Trocheck, then Anders Lee, Logan Cooley, and Dylan Guenther. Chicago dresses no Elite drivers; Ian Cole, at the 82nd percentile, and Bowen Byram, at the 76th, are its Strong drivers.

What keeps Chicago in it is Spencer Knight. He grades at 82.0 over 55 games, the night's second-best goalie grade, with a .978 save percentage on rush chances; Chicago's goaltending is at 84.2 to Utah's 68.4. Karel Vejmelka grades at 66.7 over 64 games.

Special teams favor Utah: its power play rates 75.1 to Chicago's 47.4, and its penalty kill 57.6 to 45.6. Utah's first unit of Mikhail Sergachev, Guenther, Keller, Cooley, and Schmaltz carries 66 chemistry. In Chicago's opener, its power play generated 0.28 expected goals in about 4.5 minutes, and its penalty kill gave up 0.96 in about 5.4 minutes.

The honest risk: Knight. On skaters alone, Utah would be at 87.6%; his grade is what brings it down to 79.3%.

10:00 ET, SNP: Edmonton at Vancouver

Opening night, same matchup, same building: Vancouver won 6-5 in overtime on Paul Cotter's winner. The Whiteboard's read: Edmonton controlled it at every strength, 3.76 to 2.02 in expected goals, and lost because Tristan Jarry allowed six on 2.02 expected — minus-3.98 goals saved above expected, the worst goaltending line of the night. Vasily Podkolzin was the best skater on the ice: two goals on 0.97 individual expected goals with an 85 percent on-ice share.

The Whiteboard's pick: Edmonton, 73.7% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 52.8 to 37.8. Vancouver's 37.8 is the lowest team score of the night. Edmonton's skaters rate 57.2 to 37.5, with four Elite drivers: Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard at the 99th percentile, and Leon Draisaitl and Mattias Ekholm at the 98th. With Hyman out approximately two weeks, per October 1 reporting, Podkolzin skates with McDavid and Draisaitl, a line at 90 chemistry, and joins the first power-play unit. Below that line, Edmonton is thin: its other three lines carry 47, 44, and 45. Vancouver dresses no Elite drivers; Linus Karlsson, at the 68th percentile, is its only Strong driver, and its second pair, Jamie Oleksiak and Tom Willander, is at 24 chemistry.

Goaltending is close and low on both sides, 35.0 to 38.9. Kevin Lankinen grades at 40.5 over 47 games. Devon Levi grades at 35.0, but with no games in the current rating basis and only about five rush chances faced, too few for the rush adjustment, so his grade rests on very little.

Special teams favor Edmonton: its power play rates 66.2 to 40.3 and its penalty kill 60.2 to 39.0. Its first unit of Bouchard, McDavid, Isaac Howard, Draisaitl, and Podkolzin carries 61 chemistry. These teams met on opening night, when Edmonton's power play generated 0.86 expected goals in about 6.8 minutes against Vancouver's 0.11 in about 2.0. Each team scored once on the power play that night; Edmonton's came with its goalie pulled, which the tracked power-play numbers don't cover.

The honest risk: Levi's grade, built on almost no NHL data, and Edmonton's depth below the top line. On skaters alone, Edmonton is at 80.5%.

10:00 ET, NBCSCA: Florida at San Jose

Opening night: Florida beat Carolina 1-0 in overtime on Gustav Forsling's winner. The Whiteboard's read: Florida controlled 5-on-5, 1.34 to 0.49 in expected goals, Carolina's power play kept it level, and Jacob Markstrom's shutout (plus-2.33 goals saved above expected) decided it. San Jose has not played yet.

The Whiteboard's pick: Florida, 67.9% to win.

The Whiteboard scores it 63.7 to 52.1: skaters 66.6 to 57.3. Florida has five Elite drivers: Aleksander Barkov at the 97th percentile, Gustav Forsling at the 95th, Brady Tkachuk at the 94th, Matthew Tkachuk at the 92nd, and Sam Reinhart at the 89th. Its forwards rate 70.7 to San Jose's 58.4. San Jose's top line of Mason Marchment, Macklin Celebrini, and Will Smith carries 86 chemistry, better than Florida's top line at 81; Celebrini and Marchment, both at the 81st percentile, lead its six Strong drivers.

In goal, Akira Schmid grades at 49.2 over 34 games and Yaroslav Askarov at 32.9 over 47 games, the lowest grade of the night's sixteen starters. With the rush-fit adjustment, Florida's goaltending is at 51.8 to San Jose's 31.0.

Special teams favor Florida: its power play rates 73.1 to 58.8 and its penalty kill 65.0 to 53.3. In Florida's opener, its power play generated 0.69 expected goals in about 13.0 minutes, including about half a minute at 5-on-3, and its penalty kill gave up 1.59 in about 9.6 minutes, including almost two minutes at 3-on-5. San Jose has not played.

The honest risk: San Jose's top line is the best unit in the game. On skaters alone, Florida is at 63.6%.

Standouts of the night

  • Utah over Chicago, 79.3%: the night's most confident pick, built on the widest forward gap on the slate, 73.8 to 43.3.
  • Tampa Bay, 73.2: the highest team score of the night, with the best power-play and penalty-kill ratings and the best first power-play unit, at 80 chemistry.
  • Columbus over Buffalo, 59.6%: the only pick the goalies flip. Buffalo is better on skaters; Jet Greaves, graded 93.5, decides it.
  • Edmonton over Vancouver, 73.7%: a big edge, with a starter whose grade rests on almost no NHL games.

The verdict

Eight leans, no passes. Utah over Chicago at 79.3%, Tampa Bay over the Rangers at 69.1%, Edmonton over Vancouver at 73.7%, Florida over San Jose at 67.9%, Minnesota over Nashville at 63.8%, New Jersey over Philadelphia at 63.2%, Calgary over Seattle at 61.0%, and Columbus over Buffalo at 59.6%.

The real risks, named plainly: the ratings are built on last season's data and none of this season's games are in them yet. Three picks rest heavily on goaltending grades — Columbus's on Greaves's 93.5, Chicago's survival on Knight's 82.0, and Edmonton's on Levi's 35.0, a grade built on almost no NHL games. And the Woll-Vladar question hangs over the first game: if Vladar starts instead of Woll, New Jersey's chance falls from 63.2% to 59.2%.

The results story tonight will grade every pick against the finals.

Check the work. Open the Whiteboard, the free line tool I built, and build tonight's lineups yourself. Move the pieces, watch the ratings move, and bring your version to the results story tonight.

All team scores, goalie grades, skater grades, tags, and 5v5 numbers from the Last Change Hockey Whiteboard model, built on 2025-26 NHL play-by-play and run over tonight's expected lineups. Team scores blend skater units with goaltending. Injury and lineup news as sourced in each section. Win probabilities are the model's read of expected lineups.

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